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Looks like we will have a split. I am on the Satoshi chain that is the chain without Segwit.

As we are very close on the inevitable activation and mining of the first Bitcoin Unlimited block there is great fear and trepidation among the community that the event will result in a chain split.

I have come to the conclusion that this chain split will not occur, because deep down the people who finance Blockstream are rational businessmen. They will move their development to the BU chain.

Back when the bitcoin foundation was falling apart they saw a good opportunity to co-op the very best developers to control the development and upon it build their commercial platform, and they very nearly succeeded. Why do you think the developers were so exasperated that they tried so hard to get Roger Ver to support Segwit, through a series of debates, after they saw the possibility of what they thought was a foregone conclusion (Segwit activation), was slipping away?

I am sure that the total bitcoin holdings of all the people in Blockstream added together is less than that of Roger Ver. I will even venture further to say that all the developers receive their remuneration in fiat and they themselves admitted that they do not use bitcoin regularly. So why are they so desperate to get Segwit activated?

The people funding Blockstream will be savy businessmen and as such they would have dangled a carrot in front of the developers in the form of a bonus when Segwit activates. Normally as developers they would earn their considerable salary. My guess is that, if Segwit activates, they would be even better rewarded with cash and stock options. I too would be totally annoyed, if I see my chance of being a millionaire, slip sliding away.

I think that the chain will not split, because the only important thing to the investors is that their development is on the main chain. It will not matter which chain. Sure they would have more say and control if it is Segwit but even if it is BU their 2.0 platform investment is not lost.